Riverview, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS62 KTBW 270614
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
214 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Upper-level ridging remains centered over the SE CONUS. This is a
slight retrograde from this time yesterday, impacting the placement
of the surface high as well. The surface ridge has shifted slightly
farther west to be situated over the N Gulf and is stretching
northward into the FL panhandle, along with portions of Alabama
and Mississippi. In response, today`s wind flow will be more of a
N to NNE flow in the sfc-600 mb layer. This will help to keep a
relatively hot and dry airmass in place once again today.

However, mid-level water vapor imagery shows that some moisture has
returned aloft. Additionally, the highest concentrations of dust are
now off the FL west coast and moving west. Nevertheless, strong
subsidence still favors a lot of sinking air. It will be difficult
to get storms to form in response. A heat advisory remains in effect
once again today, accounting for the primarily hot and dry weather
that is expected. Today is expected to feel even hotter than
yesterday, in particular because the day is already starting out
much warmer. Many locations (as of approx 2AM) were still in the mid-
80s. Thus, it will get hotter quicker, leading to a high risk of
impacts across the region today. It will be important to continue
practicing good heat safety measures in response.

There could be some relief in a few spots as isolated to
scattered storms could develop around the Tampa Bay Area late in
the day. Moisture and forcing will be maximized when multiple
boundary collisions take place as the afternoon turns to the
evening. This is very conditional, and will be contingent on if
the updrafts can overcome the subsidence. Nevertheless, the
potential is good enough to introduce a 30% chance in the Greater
Tampa Bay area. Elsewhere, rain chances will again remain near 0%
today. Any rain that does fall will be welcome, as this will help
to cool things down.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

There won`t be much change in this pattern for Monday. The ridge
axis will continue retrograding west, but the sprawling nature means
the surface ridge won`t shift much. Moisture will remain below
climatological norms, limiting thunderstorm activity. Much like
today, the best chances will reside along the west coast. Assuming
there isn`t much rain today, tomorrow will again be hotter, pushing
into Extreme Heat Warning territory in some areas potentially; but
we`ll have to see how today plays out first.

The pattern finally starts to break on Tuesday as deeper moisture
returns to the area. With plenty of instability after multiple days
of hot weather and little rainfall, it should be able to overcome
the subsidence from the continental ridge axis (which will continue
the westward retrograde). As the pattern begins to amplify across
much of the CONUS by Wednesday, the influence of the continental
ridge axis will wane, allowing the subtropical ridge to build back
into the region. Thus, a more typical summertime pattern should
return with scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms
returning as the weekend approaches, with "feels-like" temperatures
returning back to normal in the 100 to 105 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

While conditions are forecast to remain VFR, there is a low
(approximately 30% chance) for some thunderstorms to develop late in
the day around the greater Tampa Bay region. This is in response to
additional moisture moving into the area with the east and west
coast sea breeze boundary collisions. The window for impacts will be
short-lived, and VFR returns through tomorrow afternoon, when a
similar setup could take place again across a broader geographic
region of the FL West Coast. Better rain chances (and thus a higher
probability of impacts) do not return to the forecast before Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Hot and dry weather continues into the work week as strong high
pressure remains in control. There could be some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms around the Tampa Bay area late in the day,
pushing offshore into the evening. These storms will be capable of
causing locally hazardous marine conditions if they do develop. A
similar setup will take place each evening before greater rain
chances return later in the work week. Outside of thunderstorms,
winds remain below 15 knots with seas of around 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

A very hot and dry weekend continues, with dewpoints  dipping into
the low 70s this afternoon. This will push RH values down near 50%
for the afternoon. A couple storms will be possible around the Tampa
Bay Area, however, late in the day. As low-level moisture increases
next week, the RH values will start to rebound, and better rain
chances will return to the forecast. With the wet season well
underway, there are no major fire weather concerns despite the drier
weather.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  97  82  97  83 /  30  20  30  20
FMY  97  77  97  79 /  20  10  40  10
GIF  99  78  99  79 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  97  77  96  79 /  30  20  30  30
BKV  97  76  98  76 /  20  10  30  20
SPG  94  82  94  82 /  30  20  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery